laceblade | Entries tagged with elections

Back in May, I made some election predictions.

I thought that Scott Walker would win the recall election; he did.

I thought that the Democrats would take the State Senate in June, only to lose it in November; they did.

I thought Obama would win re-election; he did.

I didn't make a prediction about the Tammy Baldwin/Tommy Thompson race in this blog, but I commented on it frequently on Twitter - I thought that Baldwin would lose to Thompson.
She has done jack-shit as a legislator, and is extremely liberal.
Because I thought that she would lose, I was pleased when Tommy Thompson defeated the Club for Growth-backed GOP candidate in the primary.

But then Thompson was a complete jackhole in every debate, and Tammy pulled it out it in the end! Glad to have been wrong about Tammy Baldwin.
She is the US's first openly gay senator. Also Wisconsin's first woman senator.
I'm also glad to have voted for her successor in the House: Mark Pocan. This is the first time that a gay legislator has succeeded another gay legislator for the same seat. WISCONSIN DISTRICT 2 REPRESENT!

Glad to see that Nate Silver and Wisconsin's Marquette Law Poll (run by one of my fave former profs) were right. Really hoping for political science to become more mainstream, instead of people like Peggy Noonan and George Will blowing hot air all over the place. They make for better TV, but people seriously freak out waiting for election results. NEEDS TO STOP.

This was Wisconsin's sixth election of the year. People in Ohio/etc. complaining about ads can suck it. I am very, very ready for advertisements to be done. (But you can bet your ass I will still tweet incessantly about politics.)

I know one of the tags says "locked;" it's not supposed to, it's okay this post is unlocked.

Current Music: If There Ever Was a Time - Third Eye Blind
Crossposts: http://mystickeeper.livejournal.com/605910.html

President Obama is coming to campus this Thursday. Surrounded by a mass of liberals that make up his base, he'll give a speech the day after his first debate with Mitt Romney.

I went to see Obama in 2008 at the Kohl Center while he was campaigning.
I saw him again in 2010 on campus, when he came here to campaign for congressional candidates during the midterm elections - too bad Russ Feingold lost and Scott Walker won, eh?

In theory, it would be nice to see him Thursday, but I don't think I will.
For one thing, it's at noon, so I'd probably have to take the entire day off to stand in line and then see him and etc.
When I saw him in 2010, we stood in line for an entire mile and after hours of waiting, they said, "Just go to Bascom Hill," and it was kind of a free-for-all of people streaming over the stairs between Van Vleck and Van Hise.

Worse yet, to attend the rally, one must obtain a "ticket." Getting a ticket is easy! Just give your full name, phone number, and e-mail address to the Obama campaign, :) (my eyes roll forever)
Even if I had people to go with (and I'm sure I could find people if I tried), I am just not feeling it this year.

I have acupuncture scheduled at 4pm, and I'm worried about traffic returning to normalcy in time for me to ride the bus/get my car. Maybe I'll just take the bus & forget my car.

Anyone planning on going?

Crossposts: http://mystickeeper.livejournal.com/598998.html

Because

bibliofile ~~is evil~~ knows me well, she forwarded me DPW's survey about the gubernatorial recall election in Wisconsin.

The top of the survey claims that they will "put Tammy Baldwin in the Senate," which I kind of doubt.

Regardless, here's the answer I gave to their most important question:

What do you think the Democratic Party of Wisconsin could have done differently to change the outcome of the election?
Find and cultivate better candidates; run more effective/put-together campaigns.

Barrett might have been our best option out of what was available in the debates, but he pretty much sucked as hard as he could have, to convince people who hadn't already made up their minds. When asked about his economic plans for WI, he gave some anti-Walker bullshit, and Walker basically cake-walked through to election day. The plan to convince undecideds/conservatives obviously failed abysmally.
Even in a recall election, you can't campaign solely on, "The other guy sucks."
Couldn't he have at least dug up what his economic plan was from 2010? It was cringe-worthy. Walker didn't even have to try.

There was an opportunity here, and people were fired up. It's a shame that the opportunity was wasted.

Crossposts: http://mystickeeper.livejournal.com/587119.html

I half-apologize to my Twitter followers, as I retweeted the shit out of election coverage, ;_; At least the blog entries were way fewer?!

I do agree with this tweet. For those who don't want to click-through, it's Alex Burns of Politico saying, "I really don't see how you can say that money alone buys a 7-point win in a polarized, highly informed electorate."

And...yeah.

There is no question that Walker out-fundraised Barrett by a massive margin.
But I'm really suspicious of all of the cynical "this election was bought!" statements.

Exit polls from last night showed that 90% of the electorate had its mind made up over a month ago. That is a huge percentage for any election.
I literally cannot think of a single person in my life who has not formed a strong opinion about Walker and his policies. People who agree with Walker's policy aren't misinformed, I don't think. Misguided, sure, but I don't think a saturation of Barrett TV ads would have swayed the people I know in my own life.

For me, the "election in miniature" moment was during the last debate, when Barrett was asked about his economic plans for Wisconsin by the moderator. Barrett spouted off some anti-Walker rhetoric.
Walker: Just to be clear, so everybody's clear here: The Mayor doesn't have a plan, so all he's got is to attack me."
And....yes. Running against rockstar Scott Walker, who's claiming to have economically save the state, our Democratic candidate couldn't make his own fucking economic plan. Somehow, nobody viewed this as a problem!

I'm more angry at the Democratic Party of Wisconsin than I am at Walker, for running such a shitty campaign.
Then again, I might have my own opinions about the DPW, :)

My own personal conclusion from the election: Trust the polling data pre-election; deeply distrust the exit polls. THE EXIT POLLS WILL ALWAYS BETRAY YOU.
My favorite Marquette Poll, conducted by one of my former favorite professors, predicted the final results right on the nose, I think.

Walker's union-busting isn't about the philosophical "right to collectively bargain" discussion. It's about taking away the financial power of unions, who previously donated to Democrats on the same level as GOP millionaires.
Between this and Citizens United, the GOP and their Super PACs have shit in the bag. It is purposeful, and to be honest, masterful.
It is as systematic as the way that Voter ID laws disenfranchise people who are likely to vote Democratic, while making people like my father believe that voter fraud is rampant.

It is sobering, and I for one feel just about wholly incapable of doing a damned thing about it.

ETA: Taking a step back, looking at this post, it might seem incoherent, like I'm saying, "Money doesn't decide elections....except that it does!"
I guess what I mean is that money did not decide this election. People who think it did are looking for something to blame, in my opinion. It's hard to accept that so many people support Walker and/or don't think his actions are worthy of being recalled (that the recall should only be used for misconduct, etc).
I do think money can make the difference in closer races, and it absolutely determines the types of candidates we have in the first place - faceless jackholes, instead of real, authentic people.

Crossposts: http://mystickeeper.livejournal.com/581029.html

The gubernatorial recall election is tomorrow.
Most people I know are liberal, and most people are very much in an "I don't want to talk about it!" state, with the knowledge that Walker will probably win & not wanting to think about it.
If Walker loses, I will be surprised and elated. Public Policy Polling just released its latest poll last evening, putting Walker at 50 and Barrett at 47.

I received a really creepy mailer this weekend, as did a number of other people who live in my neighborhood. The mailer proclaimed, Who votes is public record! This is true! But then the mailer had my name and the names of various neighbors who all live in my apartment building, plus whether or not they voted in 2008 and in 2010. On June 5, 2012, it said, "???"
The mailer said something like, "We will know if you vote or not, and we need everyone to vote!"
I find this really creepy, and vaguely threatening! Like, it is none of my business whether or not my neighbors voted. I wish everyone would vote, but people make choices and it is none of my business.
The mailer was put about by some union.

For the most part, Republicans don't bother with Madison residents, except for TV ads (because the Madison media market covers a lot of rural areas in S/SW Wisconsin). The only thing I got from them was a weird mass text message about how Barrett is a puppet of the unions (apparently they missed the primary, in which all of the unions endorse Kathleen Falk....)

This election definitely has people talking about politics more than they ever have, even in this city. It comes in the bookstore pretty regularly, people talk about stuff at work. I still really <3 the conversations overheard on the bus during the union protests at the Capitol. Instead of commuting together in silence like every other morning, everyone was talking to one another. It was awesome.

My boyfriend and some of his work friends are going to a bar tomorrow night, mostly to drink, also to watch election returns. I'm not sure if I want to go.

I've watched election returns at home with my boyfriend and with friends, just sitting around, in the past. It's really appealing to me to read my entire Twitter feed and the entire Internet as it happens. I'm not sure if I'm up for making a social event out of it.

Am still actually concerned for people like my cousin, who were politicized by the union protests. I'm confident that the activism of a lot of the newly!politicized will not end with this election, but it's going to be really heartbreaking, for sure.
My solace is that the Democrats will take back the Senate and that heinous bullshit will stop passing.
I am unafraid of things like a "right to work" law because even if the Democrats don't take the Senate....it will never pass the Senate.

Crossposts: http://mystickeeper.livejournal.com/580113.html

For people who read me for Wisconsin politics, I do that way more frequently on Twitter, as

ribbonknight lately.

THAT SAID, SOME PREDICTIONS:
Scott Walker will win the recall election.
Democrats will take back the Senate in June, and then lose it again in November, much to the woe of the Senate pages who will have to rearrange offices twice in a single year.
I do think Obama will win re-election, though. I don't know enough about the federal legislative races to make any predictions there, :[

I know one of the tags says 'locked,' I just need to change the tag, sorry.

Crossposts: http://mystickeeper.livejournal.com/579290.html

Wisconsin's gubernatorial primary is on Tuesday AND IDK WHO I'M VOTING FOR.

Well. Definitely not Vinehout (OMG) or LaFollette (whew?!).

Falk was involved in the protests and collecting recall signatures for Walker & has various unions backing her and is all like GO ME!
I actually view Falk's various union endorsements as a detriment to her candidacy. People in unions are already going to vote against Walker. The state is split almost 50-50 on Walker, so people who are undecided & suspicious of unions aren't exactly going to vote for someone who will be a union tool, right?

Barrett kind of swooped in at the end, which is a little understandable because he needed to reelection as Mayor of Milwaukee first. It's kind of like he's coming in "after the work has been done." BUT. This distance makes him look better to the undecideds, in my opinion.

Barrett lost against Walker the first time around. But Falk has lost a statewide election too, & Barrett's polling better against Walker than Falk is. I worry about Falk's statewide electability, too. She's a Madison liberal, which, yes guys, is looked down on everywhere outside of Dane County.

Barrett seems like the vote if you want someone to beat Walker.
But I'm willing to be convinced. COMMENT.

You can vote in the poll even if you can't vote in the election, :)

Poll #10368

Open to: Registered Users, detailed results viewable to: All, participants: 3

View Respondents

Who are you voting for in the gubernatorial primary, assuming you're not voting for Walker?

View Answers

Kathleen Falk
0 (0.0%)

Kathleen Vinehout
0 (0.0%)

Tom Barrett
2 (66.7%)

Doug LaFollette
0 (0.0%)

OMG I DON'T KNOWWWWWW
1 (33.3%)

(I know one of the tags says "locked" but I intend for this post to be unlocked. I just need to rename the tag some day, ^_^)