#wirecall update

[laceblade]

For people who read me for Wisconsin politics, I do that way more frequently on Twitter, as ribbonknight lately.

THAT SAID, SOME PREDICTIONS:
Scott Walker will win the recall election.
Democrats will take back the Senate in June, and then lose it again in November, much to the woe of the Senate pages who will have to rearrange offices twice in a single year.
I do think Obama will win re-election, though. I don't know enough about the federal legislative races to make any predictions there, :[

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I know one of the tags says 'locked,' I just need to change the tag, sorry.

Comments

[lileyo]

Wow, you're confident Walker's gonna lose? I wish I was that optimistic. ;_; Maybe the typically national media I consume is more dire and incorrect than the local, though? I hope??

[laceblade]

Sorry, you must have read this before I hit the "edit" button - I'm confident Walker will win.

The locals, especially at #wirecall and in Madison, are extremely delusional about this. I'm actually concerned for them, come election day, :/

[lileyo]

Haha, whoops. >_< Feel free to delete these. I jumped the gun on ya! But yeah, it sounds like he's practically gonna cruise right by. I don't think nominating Falk would have worked better, either. It was just kind of doomed by typical Sconnie complacency. "Whee, protests! Recall! This is fun and exciting!" [six months pass] "...Wait, we're still talking about this? Meh, whatever, Donald Driver won DWTS." ;_;

[laceblade]

I actually think that the people who were engaged at the beginning are still engaged, and will still vote. I don't think they got disinterested/gave up/etc.
I think that #wiunion underestimated the GOP's presence in Wisconsin, and its ability to get out the vote - it is massive. I think people underestimated that after #wiunion, GOP people felt JUST as motivated *against* the protestors.

Walker has had tons and tons of more money, and his campaign is ever-present, whereas Barrett's is pretty failtastic, in my opinion. I think Walker has probably convinced some undecideds that his plan has "worked," and that he is better at creating jobs, however contrary those two points of view are to reality, haha.

[starlady]

My aunt the not!Republican actually said the same thing about Obama winning, which actually I find rather reassuring now that I've heard it from you and her. California is not a good place to try to get a sense of the country as a whole.

Is it just the farmers who are Republicans who put out signs on the highway, or are all the farmers whose land abuts the highways Republicans?

[laceblade]

I'm not as familiar with the highway between Milwaukee & Madison, but between Madison & Green Bay, the land next to the highway generally = land owned by farmers, at least until you get to highway 41 between Oshkosh & Green Bay and it's all billboards that are paid for by all kinds of groups - lots of pro-Jesus billboards! Also Walker ones. My fave = "Recall Santa! I didn't get what I wanted." Obviously, the two situations are comparable, *eyeroll*

[bibliofile]

re: GOP power in WI
This wouldn't surprise me, though I wish it weren't so. (Then again, I remember being surprised when Reagan won Illinois in 1980, because I lived in Chicago and I didn't know anyone who had voted for Reagan. Gosh I was young.)

What do you think about the race for Senate? Does Tammy Baldwin even have a chance? How the heck did Herb Kohl get reelected at all, ever?

[laceblade]

I don't think Baldwin has a chance....she's way too liberal for the rest of the state, imo. I'm not clear on what made her think to herself, "Russ Feingold just got voted out...CLEARY THIS IS MY TIME!"

I always thought of Herb Kohl as pretty moderate when it came to fiscal matters, but maybe I'm misremembering shit.